Market commentary

With the U.S. stock market hovering at levels some describe as ‘stretched’, economic indicators are flashing mixed signals, prompting some observers to raise the spectre of stagflation – a toxic brew of stagnant growth and persistent inflation. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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Investors are debating a number of scenarios. One is that Trump will install enough cronies on the board of the U.S. Federal Reserve that rates will be cut as many as five times in the next year. Supporters believe this could be incredibly bullish for markets, especially equities. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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I recently penned a blog post in which I highlighted the market-related concerns of American economist, chess Grandmaster, professor of international economics at Harvard University, former International Monetary Fund (IMF) Chief Economist and co-author of This Time is Different: Eight centuries of Financial Folly, Kenneth Rogoff. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Global markets, Market commentary.

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There is considerable academic and market commentary showing that equity markets often take time – sometimes weeks or months – to digest new information fully.

While Eugene Fama’s efficient market hypothesis posits that prices reflect available information almost instantly, we know that information is not evenly distributed. For example, studies on “post-earnings announcement drift” demonstrate that after companies release quarterly results, share prices tend to drift in the direction of the earnings surprise for an extended period. This implies investors initially underreact. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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As August 2025 has now wrapped up, Australia’s reporting season has again delivered a snapshot of the economy’s trajectory. For years, we’ve heard the refrain of a “resilient” domestic market weathering global headwinds, interest rate hikes, and inflationary pressures. But this time around, the narrative has evolved. Companies across the ASX are signalling that resilience is giving way to tentative recovery, particularly in consumer spending and the housing sectors. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Companies, Market commentary.

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Over the weekend, many Australians took to the streets to raise awareness about the adverse consequences and costs of Australia’s current migration policy. Those marches were peaceful, except, of course, in Victoria (where the government has legislated, or seeks to legislate, working from home and stealing from Woolworths, Bunnings, and Coles). Unfortunately, a radical element has grabbed the headlines, but setting those headlines aside, it is worth noting that the current architects of Australia’s migration policy have MPs who agree the system is broken and failing to deliver for Australia. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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You might not like the man or his personality, but I wonder whether a new brand of capitalism and a new brand of government are emerging that prioritise the greater good. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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I joined Michael Thompson on FEAR + GREED podcast to unpack one of the most volatile reporting seasons in recent memory. From sharp share price swings to three key lessons for investors — including signs of recovery, earnings downgrades, and the resurgence of small caps — this episode cuts through the noise to help you make sense of the market.

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary, Podcast Channel.

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In April this year, as U.S. equity markets fell – dragged down by Trump tariff headlines and inflation fears – long bond yields, arguably, should have declined as investors fled to safety. At first, the 10‑year Treasury yield dipped to 3.86 per cent on April 4, but by April 9, rather than continuing to fall, yields surged, with the 10‑year up to around 4.50 per cent and the 30‑year jumping 54 basis points – breaking the usual inverse correlation between stocks and bonds. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Economics, Market commentary.

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In what is yet another controversial move, US President Donald Trump has asserted federal authority over the Washington, D.C., police department while mobilising 800 National Guard troops to the nation’s capital. He frames the move and deployment as a necessary response to rampant crime, but critics argue it reveals deeper authoritarian tendencies. continue…

by Roger Montgomery Posted in Market commentary.

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